Overview
The latest official Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for the United States, published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) in December 2025, shows that inflation continued to cool heading into the end of the year. With the December 2025 CPI report scheduled for January 13, 2026, November data remains the most current snapshot available.
📊 Key CPI Numbers (November 2025 Data)
- Headline CPI (YoY): 2.7%
- Headline CPI (MoM): 0.2%
(reflecting a two-month change due to the government shutdown) - Core CPI (YoY): 2.6%
- Core CPI (MoM): 0.2%
(two-month change for November)
Release Month: December 2025
Trend Direction: Falling
This marks a continued cooling from the 3.0% headline inflation rate in September 2024, bringing the U.S. much closer to the Federal Reserve’s 2% target range.
📉 Is Inflation Falling in the U.S.?
Yes — the data indicates inflation has been steadily easing throughout 2025.
Cooling is being driven by:
- Lower transportation energy costs
- Softer vehicle prices
- Improved supply chains
- Stabilizing goods inflation
However, not all categories are cooling evenly.
🛒 Categories With the Biggest Price Increases (YoY)
Energy and household utilities continue to push consumer budgets higher:
| Category | YoY Change |
|---|---|
| Fuel Oil | +11.3% |
| Utility Gas | +9.1% |
| Electricity | +6.9% |
| Household Furnishings | +4.6% |
| Protein (Meat, Poultry, Fish, Eggs) | +4.7% |
| Used Cars & Trucks | +3.6% |
| Shelter | +3.0% |
Key Insight:
Energy + shelter remain the most persistent inflation drivers — both categories hit lower-income households hardest.
🧺 Categories Showing Minimal Growth or Declines
Some goods saw price stabilization or mild declines:
| Category | YoY Change |
|---|---|
| Dairy & Related Products | -1.6% |
| Apparel | +0.2% |
| New Vehicles | +0.6% |
This reflects normalization in supply chains, especially for vehicles and apparel.
🏠 Impact on U.S. Consumers
Purchasing Power:
At 2.7% YoY, inflation remains above the Fed’s 2% target, meaning consumer purchasing power is still eroding—just at a slower pace.
Housing Costs:
Shelter inflation sits at 3.0%, continuing to strain budgets as rent and mortgage payments remain elevated.
Energy Bills:
Fuel oil, electricity, and utility gas posted some of the biggest increases, pushing up winter heating costs.
🏦 What This Means for the Federal Reserve
With core CPI at 2.6% YoY — the lowest since March 2021 — inflation appears to be normalizing. However, analysts expect:
- No immediate rate cuts
- A steady policy stance in early 2026
- Tariff-related inflation risks later in the year
The Fed continues to balance cooling inflation against potential economic headwinds in 2026.
📅 What’s Next? (January 2026 Outlook)
The next CPI report — covering December 2025 inflation — will be released:
🗓 Tuesday, January 13, 2026
This report could influence:
- Mortgage rates
- Treasury yields
- Stock market sentiment
- Rate-cut expectations for 2026
Investors, economists, and policymakers will be watching closely.
🏁 Bottom Line
Inflation in the U.S. is cooling but not fully resolved
✔ Lower transportation & vehicle inflation
✔ Continued shelter & energy pressure
✔ Core CPI close to target
…American households are getting relief in some areas while still feeling strain in others.
🧾 Sources
S&P Global Market Intelligence
Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)
Trading Economics
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or tax advice.